The hottest production capacity to be released exc

2022-08-24
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Who will pay for the crazy lithium diaphragm when the capacity to be released exceeds 2.5 billion square meters

Abstract: the latest public data shows that the output of automotive power batteries in China in 2016 was 30.5gwh, an increase of 82% year-on-year. Under the linkage effect, the production and sales of upstream diaphragm materials are also booming. In 2016, China's lithium battery diaphragm production reached 929 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 33.03%. With the release of a new round of production capacity in 2017, the topics of "overcapacity" and "imbalance between supply and demand" have also been heard

starting from the commissioning of the first production line of Xinxiang grein in 2004, after more than 10 years of evolution, China's lithium battery diaphragm industry is ushering in high-speed development and rapid expansion of production capacity. High end wet diaphragm has become a "must for diaphragm enterprises to seek long-term development under the background of the" new energy revolution "

with the continuous and rapid development of new energy vehicles in the next five years, the market demand for power batteries is expanding. According to the latest public data, the output of automotive power batteries in China in 2016 was 30.5gwh, an increase of 82% year-on-year. Under the linkage effect, the production and sales of upstream diaphragm materials are also booming. In 2016, China's lithium battery diaphragm production reached 929 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 33.03%

based on the rapid growth of power batteries and the high prosperity of lithium diaphragm industry, most domestic diaphragm manufacturers began to expand production capacity with great fanfare. With the release of a new round of production capacity in 2017, the topics of "overcapacity" and "imbalance between supply and demand" have also been heard

however, insiders believe that although the domestic diaphragm production capacity in 2017 6. Effective stretching space stroke: About 800mm may be surplus, in the medium and high-end market monopolized by foreign diaphragm enterprises, especially wet diaphragm, there is a lot of room for import substitution, and the supply and demand is still tight. Domestic enterprises need to open the high-end market with high-quality products

saturation or shortage

since 2015, there has been an investment boom in lithium diaphragm in China, with at least more than 20 dry and 10 wet lines invested and constructed throughout the year

in 2016, the construction of lithium diaphragm production line was in full swing, and the production capacity further expanded sharply. According to new materials, Xingyuan material, Cangzhou pearl, Nanyang Technology, Hefei Jieshi, Sinoma technology, and newmi technology have all invested in new projects

since 2017, some of the above production lines have started or are planned to be put into production, and the production capacity will be gradually released

it is understood that the diaphragm project with an annual output of 60million square meters of Cangzhou Mingzhu is currently in the stage of equipment commissioning and trial production, and it is expected to be officially put into production in the second quarter of 2017; The first line of the 105million square meter wet process project previously invested through additional issuance and raising is expected to be put into trial production in March 2017

in addition, Hunan Runyuan new materials Co., Ltd. invested 370million yuan to build the first production line of lithium diaphragm with an annual output of 80million square meters, and the trial production of the second production line is expected to be completed in March 2017; Hunan Zhongli and Suzhou Jieli have 160million square meters and 120million square meters of diaphragm production lines, which are expected to be converted into effective production capacity in the first half of 2017

relevant data statistics show that China's total diaphragm design capacity may exceed 2.5 billion square meters by the end of 2016 or the beginning of 2017. "

from the demand side, xuyanhua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Association of automobile manufacturers, predicted that China would produce about 800000 new energy vehicles in 2017

according to this, some research institutions have calculated that the shipment of power lithium batteries in 2017 is about 43.86gwh, and the demand for diaphragms in the field of power lithium batteries will reach 880million square meters

in contrast, the overcapacity worried by the industry seems inevitable. However, the contradiction is that domestic battery factories such as ATL, Lishen, Guangyu and BIC are still widely using imported diaphragms. Is the lithium battery diaphragm in short supply or saturated in China

"the process of diaphragm equipment commissioning and customer certification is long, and the whole investment cycle takes up to 35 years, so the capacity release of diaphragm enterprises will not be so fast, and there should be no overcapacity this year." In an interview with new materials, a market manager of a domestic diaphragm enterprise who declined to be named said that in the high-end market, the supply and demand of high-quality products are still tight, and there is a large space for import substitution, especially wet diaphragm

it is understood that in 2016, the actual effective capacity of domestic first-line wet diaphragm enterprises was less than 250million square meters, which was a large gap compared with the annual demand of 460million square meters

as one of the four key materials of lithium battery, lithium diaphragm has a profound impact on the performance, safety and cost of battery. Due to the highest technical barriers, the localization has not been completed yet. Asahi Kasei of Japan, Toray of Japan, Celgard of the United States and ski of South Korea account for more than 50% of the global market share

Zhou Guoxing, Secretary of the board of directors of Xingyuan material, said in an interview a few days ago that more than 60% of the medium and high-end market of lithium-ion battery diaphragms are still occupied by foreign diaphragm manufacturers such as the United States and Japan, and there is a huge space for replacement in the medium and high-end market of diaphragms in the future

Why did wet diaphragm become the mainstream

since 2015, most domestic diaphragm manufacturers have expanded their production capacity mainly by wet diaphragm

according to the relevant data of Sairui research, China's diaphragm shipment in 2015 was 628million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, of which the wet diaphragm output reached 238million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 90.5%. The growth rate of wet process shipments is accelerating, and there will be further volume expansion in 2016

dry method and wet method are the two mainstream preparation processes of lithium diaphragm. Under the strong impact of wet diaphragm, will the dry process market shrink significantly in the future? Cangzhou Mingzhu said during the investigation of investment institutions that compared with dry diaphragm, wet diaphragm does have some advantages and is the mainstream direction

in an interview with the media, Wang Zhichun, general manager of newmee technology, also compared the advantages and characteristics of the two from the perspective of professional diaphragm manufacturers

in his opinion, at present, the process of lithium iron phosphate battery is mature and has high safety. Therefore, under the same requirements, the low-cost dry diaphragm can reduce the manufacturing cost of battery products while ensuring the applicability of the products. For power batteries with high safety requirements, dry double drawing and coating is also a good choice; The ternary battery pursues the unity of high capacity and safety, requires light and thin product volume, and puts forward higher requirements for the thickness of the diaphragm in the material system. Therefore, the wet diaphragm is more in line with the requirements of the ternary system

at the end of 2016, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on adjusting the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, taking battery energy density as an important indicator of subsidies, and ternary batteries have become an important position in the strategic layout of lithium battery enterprises

this can also be seen from the large-scale layout of ternary lithium batteries by BYD, the world's second largest and China's largest power battery manufacturer. BYD is the global technology leader in lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to Li Qian, the Secretary of BYD, BYD will expand the layout of ternary lithium batteries in the future. BYD expects a battery capacity of 10gwh in 2016 and a new ternary battery GWH in 2017

Cangzhou Mingzhu said in the investigation of investment institutions that the current subsidy policy formulated by the state is to give corresponding subsidies according to the energy density of batteries. In this regard, ternary batteries have certain advantages. For lithium iron phosphate, it needs to meet the relevant subsidy requirements through technological transformation and technological upgrading, and large battery manufacturers have begun to make preparations in this regard

insiders believe that driven by the explosive development of the new energy vehicle market and the demand for ternary materials, the demand for wet diaphragm has increased rapidly. At present, domestic manufacturers have expanded the production capacity of wet diaphragm. However, due to high barriers in production technology, long construction cycle of production line, and uncertainty about the time of reaching production and actual production capacity, the high-end wet diaphragm market will still be in short supply

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