Sudden rise in housing prices in first tier cities and sharp decline in housing loan preferences
sudden rise in housing prices in first tier cities and sharp decline in housing loan preferences
July 28, 2015
[China paint information] in the face of the trillions of housing loan increment in the first half of the year, some banks have stopped the production, sales and use of plastic shopping bags with a thickness of less than 0.025mm nationwide in the third quarter, and the loan policy has been adjusted. In first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the "shrinkage" of preferential policies on housing loans is common, while large state-owned banks in Shenzhen and other places even suspended their housing loan business, which immediately attracted market attention
it is understood that the inventory digestion of the real estate market has accelerated this year, and the trading market has shown a warming trend. Due to the sudden rise of housing prices in some areas of first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the bank readjusted the policy from the perspective of loan amount and risk
the housing loan preference has "shrunk"
in mid July, as the last large state-owned bank, Agricultural Bank of China increased the down payment ratio of the first suite to 40% in Shenzhen. So far, the four large state-owned banks have achieved an increase in the down payment ratio across the board
"in some first tier cities, with the rise of the stock market, the real estate market has also improved. However, the 20% increase in house prices in a month and the false high trading volume are not normal in the eyes of the bank, and the bank will be more cautious about the capital investment in the real estate market." A large state-owned bank in Shenzhen believes that many banks in Shenzhen have adjusted their housing loan policies, including large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks
the person believed that the interest rate of housing loans in all businesses was relatively low against the background of rising capital costs of banks. In the face of strong market demand, banks were forced to raise interest rates, that is, reduce concessions. "For some joint-stock banks, the housing loan business does not make money. For this small profit, the banks do not think it is particularly cost-effective to bear the risk of mismatch."
it is understood that in the housing loans for the first house at the beginning of this year, many banks can also implement a 10% discount or even a 8.7% discount on the benchmark interest rate. However, in the current Shenzhen market, the mortgage interest rates of Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank are raised by 5% on the benchmark, while the mortgage interest rate of Bank of China is raised by 10% on the benchmark
"even though the loan interest rate of the first house has been raised, there are still many applicants, and there is no obvious impact." The source disclosed that in the previous loan structure, housing loans accounted for a large proportion in the retail business of large state-owned banks such as China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China. The bank also adjusted the loan structure through interest rate measures to avoid the imbalance of the loan structure
according to relevant media reports, due to the excessive demand for housing purchase loans in Shenzhen, two state-owned banks, Shenzhen Branch, have already cut off the supply of housing loans, and the approval of housing loans and loans can not be guaranteed
it is understood that in addition to the suspension of housing loans by two large state-owned banks, Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, as more Chinese sports brands join the trend of upgrading from solvent based shoe glue to waterborne polyurethane shoe glue, Guangfa bank, Bank of Tianjin and other banks are also among the banks that have suspended housing loans
a person from the Credit Department of a joint-stock bank said that house prices in Shenzhen rose too fast in the short term. Especially in Qianhai area, the prices of some buildings rose by 40%, which brought great pressure to the bank's housing loan business. The bank has carried out risk warning for this situation. "For a very simple example, if we give loans to these home buyers and reduce the cost of new plastic packaging materials and new technologies, once the house price drops by 40%, the house value and bank loans will immediately be inverted."
"at present, there are still disputes about whether the real estate market has recovered. Some voices believe that it is the false high price and the illusion of recovery. The banks are also in a wait-and-see state." The person said
what is more noteworthy is that due to the recession of the domestic real estate market in the past two years, some areas, including Wenzhou, frequently experienced the phenomenon of house buyers' supply interruption, which also forced many banks to take judicial proceedings frequently at that time. "Many banks regard housing loans as the core component of retail business because the quality of assets is relatively high and the risk of banks is relatively low. It is definitely not the ultimate hope to release housing loan funds in exchange for commercial housing. Now, many banks are also afraid of falling into such disputes."
lower preference for housing loan business
in addition to Shenzhen, banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Qingdao and other cities have also more or less tightened their housing loans, controlling the pace of housing loans by raising loan interest rates, slowing down the speed of approval, and delaying the issuance of loans. As the "sweet pastry" of some large banks' businesses last year, the preference of banks for housing loan business decreased significantly in the second half of this year
according to the credit granting data for the first half of 2015 just released by the central bank, as of the end of June, the balance of bank personal house purchase loans was 12.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous quarter, and 4.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of various loans; 1~ through the display screen, we can know the status of the experimental machine and various experimental parameters. In June, it increased by 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 176.7 billion yuan year on year
"in order to boost the economy, the state has taken a series of measures to digest the inventory of real estate loans. However, it is obvious from the credit data in the first half of the year that the volume and price of real estate have risen at the same time, and the banks will also control the loan amount." A broker bank analyst believes that some banks have done a lot of mortgage business in the first half of the year, and may not use this business to impulse in the second half of the year
the grass-roots president of a joint-stock bank disclosed to him, "the overall economy in the first half of the year was not good, and the banks were faced with the embarrassment of not only having to meet the lending targets, but also being unable to lend. Generally, the loans granted by the banks in the first half of the year should account for 70% of the whole year, but this year it was obviously not achieved, so they could only offset the amount through the housing loan business. The situation in the second half of the year improved, and the banks had more choices."
in fact, for some joint-stock banks, the housing loan business has always been "not popular". "The capital cost of banks is rising, and the profits of housing loan business are very thin. Banks will not choose to invest too much money in this business. Compared with other businesses, banks can have more choices." The above-mentioned grass-roots president said, "housing loans have not been the main business of banks, and banks do not recommend more housing loans."
it is understood that for China Merchants Bank, Minsheng and other banks, the preference for housing loan business is far less than that for capital market business. In this round of market rescue, a number of joint-stock banks have launched some products to help listed companies increase their holdings in line with the policy, and the profits of banks are far richer than those of the housing loan business