Energy saving and emission reduction is not the main cause of "diesel shortage". Insiders pointed out that "our production capacity has not been significantly improved recently, because our fuel oil price is too high." Mr. Zhou, the sales manager of a large local oil enterprise in Dongying, Shandong, who adjusted the experimental space industry according to the samples or components, sighed in the middle yesterday
even in the days of "diesel shortage", the operating rate of the enterprise can only reach 60%~70%, which is obviously much worse than that of Sinopec and PetroChina, which are close to 100%. When the market demand for diesel suddenly increases, the supply of the two major domestic oil producers and local refineries becomes stretched. If the upstream raw material supply is not liberalized, diesel may be "scarce" every yearLiufeng, an analyst at zhuochuang information, said that in fact, the operating rate of local refineries in China has not increased due to the shortage of diesel oil. Just last week, the average operating rate of Shandong local refinery was 43.2%, down 1.59 percentage points from a week ago
"as a local refinery, we can only purchase fuel oil to produce diesel oil, because the share of crude oil allocated is too small." Mr. Zhou from Shandong refining said that fuel oil accounts for more than 50% of the company's raw material sources
the data obtained from insiders also show that the total crude oil processing capacity of Shandong local refinery, including Changyi, Dongming and Hongrun, is about 56million tons, but only about 2million tons of crude oil quota can be allocated
however, at present, the output rate of fuel oil is not high (about 20 tons of diesel can be produced from 100 tons of fuel oil, and about 37 tons of diesel can be produced from 100 tons of crude oil), and the price is also rising
just yesterday, the quotations of high sulfur crude oil imported from Huangpu port and Singapore "high sulfur 180" fuel oil were between 4900 yuan and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, which was more than 20% higher than the 4300 yuan/ton on August 20, 2010. If the recent crude oil price is US $88 per barrel, the current purchase cost of a ton of crude oil is only about 4239 yuan, which is at least nearly 700 yuan cheaper than the fuel oil price
in October this year, some refineries in Shandong also suffered from "power cut". The output of petroleum coke of some enterprises decreased by about 20% on the day of power cut, but the impact on the refining units of local refineries was not great. "Because the diesel oil in local refineries is not 6. the gap between the force measuring piston and the force measuring cylinder is very large, which may lead to a sudden and substantial increase in production. Therefore, it is unrealistic to rely on local refineries to help increase market supply during peak oil consumption periods such as power rationing, autumn harvest and fishing." Ruidingkun, a researcher at CIC securities, told
the output of the two domestic giants is tight
it is learned from various channels that, in fact, the diesel output of the two domestic giants is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. PetroChina's forecast is that its daily crude oil production in November will increase by 10000 tons compared with that in October, reaching 168000 tons, an increase of 6.3%. Sinopec's oil product output in October increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and diesel output increased by about 12.3% year-on-year. The capacity of the two companies has almost reached its limit in the near future
Rui Dingkun said: "it is difficult for the diesel production capacity to be suddenly increased by more than 20% within one month. On the one hand, the refinery unit can not reach such a high load, which will have a great impact on equipment loss and construction safety. In addition, it is also necessary to disrupt the transportation, raw material delivery and other arrangements."
however, if the increase of about 10% in October and November can not solve the problem of production, it will be difficult to fill the sudden burst of demand in the market
Liubo, a researcher at Guojin securities, said that in September this year, some data showed that there might be a shortage of diesel supply in the future, "because the total industrial output value and the output value of light industry in that month increased by about 26% year-on-year, while as a market barometer, the diesel output that otherwise had a negative impact on instrument optical components and metal coating increased by less than 3%. This may have cast a shadow on the 'diesel shortage' since then."
in September this year, diesel oil in some parts of China was out of supply. At that time, the domestic diesel output totaled 13.109 million tons, a year-on-year increase of only 2.5%, lower than the increase of gasoline and kerosene by 5.6% and 3.2%, and far lower than the increase of naphtha output used in chemical industry (31%)
in fact, an insider of Sinopec disclosed to this newspaper that individual refineries of Sinopec were also affected by "energy conservation and emission reduction", resulting in low diesel output rate. However, this statement has not been confirmed by Sinopec Group. The senior management of a large-scale refinery subordinate to the company told that the enterprise had indeed made repeated communication with the government on the issue of "energy conservation and emission reduction" recently, and the final result was that the enterprise would try to reduce high energy consuming chemical plants without affecting the production of ethylene and oil refining
"now we feel a lot of pressure." A vice president of a coastal province of Sinopec Group said frankly that the diesel sales volume of the province was about 500000 tons/month, but now it has increased to 700000 to 800000 tons. "It should be said that the demand will not increase to 40%. The main reason is that the diesel supply from local refineries and other channels is insufficient, which turns the sales pressure on us."
at a time when crude oil prices are steadily rising and demand is surging, the government really needs to control the price of gasoline and diesel, and control refineries and sellers to make huge profits. We can also encourage the local refining enterprises to increase the production capacity by means of incentives and deregulation of crude oil. Otherwise, about 20% of the domestic local refining capacity will only be a supporting role
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